tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4594 Southwest SAN 09:02 SAT 13:44 16% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 3911 Southwest SAN 18:37 SAT 23:16 21% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 2h 16m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580 8h 51m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:15 → ORD 12:47AA 518 2h 16m Chicago ORD 15:03 → SAT 18:03AA 4176 · flown by Envoy 9h 48m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 15:58 → SAT 17:29DL 1465 9h 14m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:01 → SFO 12:47UA 2309 3h 29m San Francisco SFO 16:16 → SAT 21:52UA 2281 8h 51m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687 2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:35 → SAT 18:54AA 3899 · flown by Envoy 7h 04m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Los Angeles LAX 09:55 → SAT 14:53DL 2568 6h 38m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:00 → IAD 16:08UA 1071 1h 37m Dulles IAD 17:45 → SAT 20:22UA 1869 10h 22m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 27m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 6h 10m 92% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763 57m San Francisco SFO 16:16 → SAT 21:52UA 2281 6h 13m 73% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON