Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2508 at 11:06 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 2508 SAN 11:06 → SEA 14:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 608 SAN 07:15 → SEA 10:11 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2508 Delta Flight history →	SAN 11:06	SEA 14:15	11%	3%	0.8%	90%
DL 2613 Delta Flight history →	SAN 19:00	SEA 22:03	12%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 2572 Delta Flight history →	SAN 16:11	SEA 19:05	13%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 2530 Delta Flight history →	SAN 07:03	SEA 10:05	13%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 2533 Delta Flight history →	SAN 13:36	SEA 16:32	14%	3%	0.8%	86%
AS 709 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 06:16	SEA 09:13	16%	2%	1.1%	89%
WN 247 Southwest	SAN 07:04	SEA 09:57	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 685 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 14:53	SEA 17:47	19%	3%	1.0%	82%
AS 574 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 15:54	SEA 18:50	21%	4%	0.9%	79%
AS 1373 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 16:51	SEA 19:47	22%	4%	1.0%	93%worse than usual
AS 1368 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:50	SEA 14:41	25%	3%	1.0%	85%
AS 609 Alaska	SAN 09:32	SEA 12:29	27%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 4310 Southwest	SAN 17:58	SEA 20:49	27%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 608 Alaska	SAN 07:15	SEA 10:11	28%	4%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON