Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1143 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 1143 SAN 06:33 → SJC 08:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1449 SAN 21:23 → SJC 22:55 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1143 Southwest	SAN 06:33	SJC 08:04	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1580 Southwest	SAN 08:21	SJC 09:52	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2066 Southwest	SAN 09:28	SJC 10:59	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3462 Southwest	SAN 14:59	SJC 16:30	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4468 Southwest	SAN 16:09	SJC 17:38	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 818 Southwest	SAN 17:44	SJC 19:14	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4137 Southwest	SAN 20:11	SJC 21:41	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1790 Southwest	SAN 16:53	SJC 18:16	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1667 Southwest	SAN 11:33	SJC 13:03	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 298 Southwest	SAN 19:40	SJC 21:07	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 3036 SkyWest	SAN 09:32	SJC 11:12	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 864 SkyWest	SAN 07:41	SJC 09:21	21%	5%	0.9%	no record
AS 1449 Alaska	SAN 21:23	SJC 22:55	21%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 2091 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 09:55	SJC 11:24	49%	12%	1.9%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON