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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3471 at 12:29, 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3471 Southwest SAN 12:29 STL 17:59 28% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 8h 30m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754 2h 57m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 9h 09m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:43 → STL 16:40AA 3944 · flown by Envoy 8h 20m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 15:17 → STL 16:07DL 543 7h 52m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:28DL 1179 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → STL 20:06DL 2833 10h 06m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → SAN 13:19 → ORD 19:55AA 2131 3h 00m Chicago ORD 22:55 → STL 00:19 +1AA 3069 9h 00m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAN 14:18 → ATL 22:00DL 540 1h 10m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 7h 35m 92% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 2h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 15:10 → STL 19:00DL 1492 7h 14m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492 50m Detroit DTW 20:00 → STL 20:37DL 1541 7h 00m 75% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON