Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3302 SAN 21:03 → STS 22:58 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest OO 3045 SAN 12:15 → STS 14:08 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3302 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 21:03	STS 22:58	9%	3%	1.6%	80%
AS 3445 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 07:51	STS 09:45	12%	5%	1.8%	84%
WN 2622 Southwest	SAN 19:44	STS 21:27	15%	3%	1.8%	no record
OO 3045 SkyWest	SAN 12:15	STS 14:08	16%	5%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON