tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1721 Alaska SAN 08:28 TPA 16:05 28% 4% 1.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759 7h 43m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:28DL 1179 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 18:22 → TPA 19:54DL 1457 8h 54m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 19:57 → TPA 21:30DL 3135 7h 54m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:00 → IAD 16:08UA 1071 1h 52m Dulles IAD 18:00 → TPA 20:39UA 1140 9h 39m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 38m Denver DEN 13:55 → TPA 19:33UA 2375 7h 48m 93% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:07UA 2830 2h 28m San Francisco SFO 10:35 → TPA 18:53UA 2818 9h 33m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Los Angeles LAX 10:11 → TPA 18:05DL 749 8h 50m 99% 77%
FrontierDetails → SAN 06:25 → DEN 10:03F9 2818 1h 19m Denver DEN 11:22 → TPA 16:58F9 2748 7h 33m 91% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492 49m Detroit DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355 7h 58m 72% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON