Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, QX 2340 at 08:57, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


QX 2340 Horizon	SAN 08:57	TUL 13:59	14%	5%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	9h 49m	99%	88%
American Details →	SAN 13:19 → ORD 19:55AA 2131	2h 10m Chicago	ORD 22:05 → TUL 00:06 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy	8h 47m	95%	87%
American Details →	SAN 15:14 → DFW 20:35AA 3060	2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531	6h 33m	100%	83%
United Details →	SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476	1h 23m Denver	DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest	5h 44m	92%	82%
American Details →	SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535	2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:19 → TUL 15:38AA 2851	7h 18m	98%	81%
United Details →	SAN 16:07 → DEN 19:39UA 682	1h 16m Denver	DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest	5h 40m	88%	80%
United Details →	SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237	2h 38m Houston	IAH 20:03 → TUL 21:36UA 1927	7h 38m	97%	79%
American Details →	SAN 07:15 → DFW 12:30AA 373	3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:08 → TUL 17:28AA 2830	8h 13m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON