tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2406 Southwest SAN 09:03 TUS 10:26 10% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 1808 Southwest SAN 19:02 TUS 20:27 19% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest 6h 20m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest 1h 59m Los Angeles LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50DL 3776 · flown by SkyWest 4h 56m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:07UA 2830 2h 17m San Francisco SFO 10:24 → TUS 12:45UA 5433 · flown by SkyWest 6h 25m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 04m Denver DEN 19:10 → TUS 20:12UA 1762 7h 39m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → SAN 08:00 → DFW 13:10AA 1055 1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:46 → TUS 15:01AA 584 7h 01m 92% 68%
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:01 → PHX 17:26AA 1951 1h 18m Phoenix PHX 18:44 → TUS 19:43AA 6457 · flown by SkyWest 3h 42m 80% 67%
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467 1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:36 → TUS 19:52AA 1207 7h 32m 93% 66%
AmericanDetails → SAN 15:14 → DFW 20:35AA 3060 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:28 → TUS 22:00AA 1580 6h 46m 84% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON