Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1073 SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1465 SAT 18:32 → ATL 21:58 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1073 Delta Flight history →	SAT 05:20	ATL 08:46	3%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1066 Delta Flight history →	SAT 06:40	ATL 10:07	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 998 Delta Flight history →	SAT 07:40	ATL 11:06	4%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1676 Delta Flight history →	SAT 10:38	ATL 14:05	5%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 1408 Delta Flight history →	SAT 14:35	ATL 18:11	7%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 2009 Delta Flight history →	SAT 17:00	ATL 20:40	7%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 1465 Delta Flight history →	SAT 18:32	ATL 21:58	8%	2%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON