Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 3–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1895 SAT 06:45 → DAL 07:56 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4478 SAT 18:44 → DAL 19:56 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1895 Southwest	SAT 06:45	DAL 07:56	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2275 Southwest	SAT 09:24	DAL 10:34	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4470 Southwest	SAT 11:32	DAL 12:43	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 210 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 20:06	DAL 21:23	7%	3%	0.7%	75%
WN 1353 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 13:34	DAL 14:45	8%	2%	0.7%	92%
WN 2595 Southwest	SAT 15:19	DAL 16:31	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 245 Southwest	SAT 16:44	DAL 17:50	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4478 Southwest	SAT 18:44	DAL 19:56	10%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON