Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 1718 at 06:40, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 1718 American Flight history →	SAT 06:40	DCA 11:02	6%	3%	0.6%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	6h 43m	97%	88%
United Details →	SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469	1h 10m Houston	IAH 07:47 → DCA 12:04UA 512	5h 34m	97%	88%
American Details →	SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342	2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177	6h 41m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 10:58 → DCA 12:47DL 1798	6h 27m	98%	87%
United Details →	SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332	3h 07m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752	8h 12m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SAT 13:20 → BOS 18:47DL 816	3h 01m Boston	BOS 21:48 → DCA 23:44DL 5704 · flown by Republic	9h 24m	96%	87%
American Details →	SAT 05:00 → DFW 06:26AA 2616	3h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → DCA 13:34AA 2399	7h 34m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592	2h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820	9h 05m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON