Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4646 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 4646 SAT 06:57 → DEN 08:08 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2479 SAT 16:35 → DEN 18:08 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4646 Southwest	SAT 06:57	DEN 08:08	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 966 Southwest	SAT 21:45	DEN 23:21	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 5397 SkyWest	SAT 05:47	DEN 07:03	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3487 Southwest	SAT 12:09	DEN 13:21	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2853 United Flight history →	SAT 08:53	DEN 10:11	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
F9 2355 Frontier Flight history →	SAT 20:12	DEN 21:41	11%	4%	0.7%	87%
UA 1007 United Flight history →	SAT 13:39	DEN 14:55	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 2479 United Flight history →	SAT 16:35	DEN 18:08	15%	4%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON