Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2616 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–14%.

Safest bet that day AA 2616 SAT 05:00 → DFW 06:26 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 620 SAT 17:32 → DFW 18:50 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2616 American Flight history →	SAT 05:00	DFW 06:26	2%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 2342 American Flight history →	SAT 05:01	DFW 06:18	3%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 3098 American Flight history →	SAT 07:00	DFW 08:20	6%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 2377 American Flight history →	SAT 08:00	DFW 09:24	6%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 1631 American Flight history →	SAT 09:36	DFW 11:03	6%	3%	0.7%	78%
AA 2759 American Flight history →	SAT 10:49	DFW 12:12	6%	3%	0.7%	78%
MQ 4039 Envoy	SAT 11:31	DFW 12:51	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3742 Envoy	SAT 19:02	DFW 20:22	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 413 American Flight history →	SAT 12:41	DFW 14:06	10%	5%	0.7%	70%
AA 2768 American	SAT 13:59	DFW 15:25	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2687 American	SAT 16:20	DFW 17:42	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1961 American Flight history →	SAT 16:27	DFW 17:55	12%	6%	0.7%	71%
AA 2609 American Flight history →	SAT 14:48	DFW 16:11	12%	6%	0.7%	69%
AA 620 American	SAT 17:32	DFW 18:50	14%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON