tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3489 Southwest SAT 08:14 ELP 08:52 2% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3490 Southwest SAT 19:38 ELP 20:15 9% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SAT 13:34 → DAL 14:45WN 1353 2h 26m Dallas DAL 17:11 → ELP 18:00WN 1100 5h 26m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → ELP 13:20DL 1002 7h 40m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:14 → ELP 09:06AA 1365 5h 05m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → SAT 07:00 → DFW 08:20AA 3098 2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:53 → ELP 11:44AA 1658 5h 44m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAT 08:53 → DEN 10:11UA 2853 1h 27m Denver DEN 11:38 → ELP 13:34UA 2128 5h 41m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → SAT 10:49 → DFW 12:12AA 2759 2h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:10 → ELP 16:05AA 1681 6h 16m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAT 11:42 → IAH 13:04UA 1282 3h 54m Houston IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 7h 20m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 1h 59m Houston IAH 10:49 → ELP 11:51UA 6309 · flown by Mesa 5h 08m 97% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON