tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:38, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 471 United Flight history → SAT 07:00 IAD 11:27 4% 2% 0.6% 95%
UA 2250 United Flight history → SAT 12:01 IAD 16:28 10% 4% 0.6% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 7h 41m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 2h 34m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 7h 54m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 12:39 → SLC 14:30DL 930 3h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847 9h 50m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 17:00 → ATL 20:40DL 2009 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 6h 41m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAT 10:38 → ATL 14:05DL 1676 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 8h 16m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 8h 06m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAT 08:53 → DEN 10:11UA 2853 3h 42m Denver DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347 9h 29m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAT 09:51 → IAH 10:54UA 753 4h 00m Houston IAH 14:54 → IAD 19:12UA 1178 8h 21m 100% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON