Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3494 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 3494 SAT 06:10 → LAS 07:03 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3419 SAT 15:10 → LAS 16:16 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3494 Southwest	SAT 06:10	LAS 07:03	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3495 Southwest	SAT 10:56	LAS 11:48	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1412 Southwest	SAT 13:32	LAS 14:24	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4746 Southwest	SAT 17:58	LAS 18:49	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 3419 Frontier Flight history →	SAT 15:10	LAS 16:16	13%	6%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON