Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4951 SAT 07:00 → LAX 08:20 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 3084 SAT 13:56 → LAX 14:58 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4951 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAT 07:00	LAX 08:20	6%	3%	0.6%	93%
AA 6497 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAT 15:07	LAX 16:26	7%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 2534 Delta Flight history →	SAT 07:19	LAX 08:20	7%	2%	0.5%	92%
DL 1471 Delta	SAT 16:48	LAX 17:57	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3084 Southwest	SAT 13:56	LAX 14:58	9%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON