Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 1604 at 05:01, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 1604 American Flight history →	SAT 05:01	MIA 09:00	5%	3%	0.9%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 42m	99%	89%
United Details →	SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469	1h 20m Houston	IAH 07:57 → MIA 11:47UA 2753	5h 17m	97%	85%
American Details →	SAT 06:01 → CLT 10:00AA 1119	1h 02m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 10m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:33DL 1323	7h 53m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SAT 17:00 → ATL 20:40DL 2009	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 55m	99%	84%
American Details →	SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342	2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:04 → MIA 13:09AA 1219	7h 08m	99%	83%
American Details →	SAT 07:00 → DFW 08:20AA 3098	2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:28 → MIA 14:33AA 1454	6h 33m	98%	82%
American Details →	SAT 08:00 → CLT 11:57AA 3297	1h 38m Charlotte	CLT 13:35 → MIA 15:46AA 1198	6h 46m	97%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON