Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching New Orleans on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	6h 17m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	6h 37m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → MSY 13:47DL 2100	7h 17m	97%	91%
United Details →	SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469	56m Houston	IAH 07:33 → MSY 08:58UA 491	3h 28m	96%	90%
Delta Details →	SAT 10:38 → ATL 14:05DL 1676	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146	5h 19m	97%	89%
United Details →	SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410	3h 05m Houston	IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385	5h 31m	98%	89%
United Details →	SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 10:59 → MSY 13:27UA 1532	6h 47m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SAT 13:59 → ATL 17:28DL 1408	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 19:34 → MSY 20:10DL 1450	6h 11m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON