Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Bush, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 1233 American	SAT 07:13	PHL 12:16	7%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717	2h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	7h 38m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	7h 04m	98%	90%
United Details →	SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469	55m Houston	IAH 07:32 → PHL 12:06UA 2203	5h 36m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131	7h 22m	99%	89%
American Details →	SAT 05:00 → DFW 06:26AA 2616	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:30 → PHL 11:52AA 415	5h 52m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SAT 11:29 → DTW 15:35DL 788	2h 05m Detroit	DTW 17:40 → PHL 19:25DL 1686	6h 56m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528	3h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	8h 30m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SAT 17:00 → ATL 20:40DL 2009	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 59m	99%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON