Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3505 SAT 07:45 → PHX 08:12 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2375 SAT 15:37 → PHX 16:19 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3505 Southwest	SAT 07:45	PHX 08:12	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 813 Southwest	SAT 13:00	PHX 13:27	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 2053 American Flight history →	SAT 08:38	PHX 09:27	9%	4%	0.6%	84%
WN 3507 Southwest	SAT 18:40	PHX 19:06	10%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 2375 American Flight history →	SAT 15:37	PHX 16:19	10%	7%	0.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON