tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4143 Southwest SAT 05:57 SAN 06:57 6% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 4485 Southwest SAT 18:09 SAN 19:08 14% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 2h 39m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 9h 19m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 2h 53m Houston IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491 7h 21m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 48m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 2h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 38m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 13:34 → DAL 14:45WN 1353 3h 13m Dallas DAL 17:58 → SAN 19:07WN 1356 7h 33m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 10:38 → ATL 14:05DL 1676 1h 32m Atlanta ATL 15:37 → SAN 17:20DL 924 8h 42m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 1h 34m Minneapolis MSP 18:50 → SAN 20:35DL 2145 8h 09m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAT 12:39 → SLC 14:30DL 930 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252 7h 27m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAT 14:15 → IAH 15:27UA 6281 · flown by Mesa 50m Houston IAH 16:17 → SAN 17:41UA 2798 5h 26m 70% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON