Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 08:53, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 494 Alaska Flight history →	SAT 16:44	SEA 19:10	22%	4%	0.6%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 55m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	11h 30m	99%	90%
United Details →	SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471	1h 42m Dulles	IAD 13:09 → SEA 15:57UA 1824	10h 57m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	11h 09m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SAT 10:38 → ATL 14:05DL 1676	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	10h 27m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497	3h 09m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	11h 14m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SAT 14:35 → ATL 18:11DL 1408	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	11h 24m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	SAT 18:05 → MSP 20:58DL 2675	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	7h 53m	94%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON