tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via DFW, leaving 05:01, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 214 United SAT 07:44 SFO 09:39 12% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 1210 United SAT 18:49 SFO 20:56 12% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → SFO 15:49DL 823 10h 09m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 2h 01m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 9h 04m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → SFO 11:55DL 672 8h 35m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:22 → SFO 10:23AA 2309 7h 22m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAT 11:42 → IAH 13:04UA 1282 2h 26m Houston IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 7h 53m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAT 08:53 → DEN 10:11UA 2853 3h 14m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 8h 16m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332 2h 55m Chicago ORD 12:33 → SFO 14:51UA 1097 10h 11m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471 1h 13m Dulles IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 10h 27m 98% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON