Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1415 at 14:49, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1415 Southwest	SAT 14:49	TPA 18:29	14%	4%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 14:01 → TPA 15:35DL 1720	7h 55m	99%	88%
United Details →	SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332	1h 41m Chicago	ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834	7h 32m	98%	87%
United Details →	SAT 08:53 → DEN 10:11UA 2853	3h 44m Denver	DEN 13:55 → TPA 19:33UA 2375	9h 40m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	5h 09m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 10:00 → TPA 14:08DL 2264	7h 03m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525	5h 33m	98%	84%
American Details →	SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342	3h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:02 → TPA 13:49AA 3112	7h 48m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SAT 17:00 → ATL 20:40DL 2009	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	6h 29m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON