Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5049 SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2372 SAV 17:33 → CLT 18:50 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5049 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 07:00	CLT 08:25	4%	3%	0.9%	95%
OH 5277 PSA	SAV 09:34	CLT 10:51	5%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 5676 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 10:42	CLT 11:59	5%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 5534 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 12:07	CLT 13:24	7%	3%	0.7%	93%
OH 5553 PSA	SAV 16:13	CLT 17:31	8%	4%	0.8%	no record
OH 5677 PSA	SAV 14:18	CLT 15:35	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2372 American	SAV 17:33	CLT 18:50	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 5910 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 11:00	CLT 12:26	14%	6%	0.0%	86%
AA 6119 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 17:56	CLT 19:28	18%	10%	2.4%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON