Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2828 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day


UA 2828 United Flight history →	SAV 06:15	EWR 08:27	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
UA 546 United Flight history →	SAV 15:24	EWR 17:37	19%	5%	0.7%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAV 05:39 → ATL 06:45DL 3098	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	6h 42m	99%	90%
American Details →	SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25AA 5049 · flown by PSA	2h 25m Charlotte	CLT 10:50 → EWR 12:50AA 1697	5h 50m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	SAV 08:10 → ATL 09:18DL 686	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	6h 06m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SAV 10:03 → ATL 11:09DL 3011	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322	5h 21m	100%	84%
United Details →	SAV 07:15 → IAH 09:00UA 6220 · flown by Mesa	1h 57m Houston	IAH 10:57 → EWR 15:34UA 1340	8h 19m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SAV 17:05 → ATL 18:19DL 3014	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 21:42 → EWR 23:54DL 2527	6h 49m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SAV 12:38 → ATL 13:54DL 3054	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340	5h 15m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	SAV 17:16 → MSP 19:15DL 2574	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	6h 40m	89%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON