Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, YX 5640 at 18:49, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5640 SAV 18:49 → LGA 21:05 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5640 Republic	SAV 18:49	LGA 21:05	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 5457 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 06:00	LGA 08:11	14%	8%	3.8%	86%
DL 5267 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 12:05	LGA 14:23	31%	10%	6.1%	69%
DL 5178 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 18:50	LGA 21:10	43%	17%	10.5%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON