Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 3228 at 06:01, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3228 American	SAV 06:01	MIA 07:43	8%	5%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAV 05:39 → ATL 06:45DL 3098	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 18m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SAV 06:43 → ATL 07:53DL 1702	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 19m	99%	86%
American Details →	SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25AA 5049 · flown by PSA	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 11m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	SAV 10:03 → ATL 11:09DL 3011	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:33DL 1323	5h 30m	99%	82%
American Details →	SAV 10:42 → CLT 12:00AA 5676 · flown by PSA	1h 35m Charlotte	CLT 13:35 → MIA 15:46AA 1198	5h 04m	96%	80%
United Details →	SAV 06:15 → EWR 08:27UA 2828	3h 04m Newark	EWR 11:31 → MIA 14:38UA 2295	8h 23m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SAV 19:07 → ATL 20:34DL 3112	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	5h 48m	95%	79%
American Details →	SAV 07:11 → DCA 09:10AA 5146 · flown by PSA	2h 45m Washington	DCA 11:55 → MIA 14:38AA 1627	7h 27m	96%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON