Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3708 SAV 06:08 → ORD 07:52 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2499 SAV 15:53 → ORD 17:24 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3708 Republic	SAV 06:08	ORD 07:52	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 485 United	SAV 08:41	ORD 10:04	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4054 Envoy	SAV 12:03	ORD 13:39	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1464 United	SAV 12:16	ORD 13:45	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2499 United	SAV 15:53	ORD 17:24	11%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON