Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3447 at 06:34 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 3447 SBA 06:34 → DEN 09:58 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1790 SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3447 Southwest	SBA 06:34	DEN 09:58	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 365 Southwest	SBA 06:53	DEN 10:19	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2865 United Flight history →	SBA 05:00	DEN 08:27	5%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1790 United Flight history →	SBA 12:48	DEN 16:16	18%	6%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON