tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3517 Southwest SBA 05:43 LAS 07:00 5% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 4491 Southwest SBA 13:49 LAS 15:07 13% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 1h 12m San Francisco SFO 08:37 → LAS 10:32UA 1627 4h 17m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → SBA 14:46 → LAX 15:42UA 5994 · flown by SkyWest 3h 18m Los Angeles LAX 19:00 → LAS 20:26UA 371 5h 40m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 1h 17m Denver DEN 09:44 → LAS 10:48UA 1767 5h 48m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → LAS 12:01DL 1659 6h 11m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 3h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 23:15 → LAS 23:40DL 1662 6h 50m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 2h 08m San Francisco SFO 19:37 → LAS 21:27UA 1995 5h 24m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03UA 4649 · flown by SkyWest 3h 33m Los Angeles LAX 10:36 → LAS 12:01UA 1047 6h 01m 99% 84%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon 1h 00m Portland PDX 10:45 → LAS 13:11AS 757 5h 37m 92% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON