tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4649 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SBA 06:00 LAX 07:03 6% 5% 0.9% 91%
UA 5994 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SBA 14:45 LAX 15:43 14% 5% 0.7% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 6h 37m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 1h 35m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 34m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 1h 35m San Francisco SFO 09:00 → LAX 10:43UA 1457 4h 28m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → LAX 23:42DL 1197 6h 52m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 1h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161 5h 27m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SBA 15:17 → SFO 16:35UA 2305 1h 58m San Francisco SFO 18:33 → LAX 19:58UA 1799 4h 41m 94% 80%
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 3h 59m San Francisco SFO 21:28 → LAX 22:53UA 1079 6h 50m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 1790 1h 12m Denver DEN 17:28 → LAX 18:52UA 1753 6h 04m 84% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SBA 15:17 → SFO 16:35UA 2305 1h 00m San Francisco SFO 17:35 → LAX 18:58UA 2282 3h 41m 71% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON