tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 618 at 19:24, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 618 Alaska SBA 19:24 SEA 22:01 16% 5% 0.7% no record
AS 2143 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SBA 10:51 SEA 13:26 18% 0% 1.9% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m San Francisco SFO 20:45 → SEA 23:10UA 1007 7h 07m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 6h 59m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 3h 00m Denver DEN 11:27 → SEA 13:27UA 2058 8h 27m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871 5h 53m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SBA 15:17 → SFO 16:35UA 2305 2h 07m San Francisco SFO 18:42 → SEA 20:47UA 1097 5h 30m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 53m Salt Lake City SLC 20:44 → SEA 22:00DL 2016 5h 10m 93% 76%
UnitedDetails → SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 1790 2h 51m Denver DEN 19:07 → SEA 20:52UA 2767 8h 04m 97% 73%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon 2h 04m San Diego SAN 16:51 → SEA 19:47AS 1373 6h 05m 96% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon 1h 07m San Diego SAN 15:54 → SEA 18:50AS 574 5h 08m 75% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON