Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2340 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2340 SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest OO 5831 SBA 09:38 → SFO 11:11 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2340 United Flight history →	SBA 06:15	SFO 07:25	8%	5%	0.6%	89%
OO 5263 SkyWest	SBA 18:45	SFO 20:00	17%	7%	2.1%	no record
UA 5256 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SBA 16:03	SFO 17:29	24%	6%	0.8%	74%
UA 2305 United Flight history →	SBA 15:17	SFO 16:35	29%	10%	0.6%	52%
OO 5831 SkyWest	SBA 09:38	SFO 11:11	39%	21%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON