Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1467 at 17:55, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1467 Southwest	SBA 17:55	SMF 19:21	9%	5%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest	2h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 26m	99%	91%
United Details →	SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03UA 4649 · flown by SkyWest	2h 24m Los Angeles	LAX 09:27 → SMF 11:13UA 5537 · flown by SkyWest	5h 13m	98%	88%
Alaska Details →	SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon	1h 15m Portland	PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon	4h 59m	94%	85%
United Details →	SBA 15:17 → SFO 16:35UA 2305	2h 28m San Francisco	SFO 19:03 → SMF 19:52UA 1862	4h 35m	97%	81%
United Details →	SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340	52m San Francisco	SFO 08:17 → SMF 09:25UA 5220 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m	87%	79%
Alaska Details →	SBA 06:00 → SAN 07:04AS 2174 · flown by Horizon	3h 56m San Diego	SAN 11:00 → SMF 12:53AS 3439 · flown by SkyWest	6h 53m	98%	62%
Alaska Details →	SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon	2h 09m San Diego	SAN 16:56 → SMF 18:38AS 2334 · flown by Horizon	4h 56m	96%	55%
Alaska Details →	SBA 10:51 → SEA 13:26AS 2143 · flown by Horizon	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 14:44 → SMF 16:37AS 2401 · flown by Horizon	5h 46m	89%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON