tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4296 Southwest SDF 07:07 BNA 07:11 5% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 1704 Southwest SDF 16:04 BNA 16:07 13% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155 5h 09m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 25m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SDF 18:54 → ATL 20:34DL 1126 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 5h 21m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SDF 16:29 → MSP 17:39DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144 6h 57m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic 3h 09m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 6h 13m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 5h 09m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SDF 16:47 → ATL 18:25DL 3195 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 20:24 → BNA 20:38DL 3002 4h 51m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38UA 3594 · flown by Republic 2h 11m Newark EWR 10:49 → BNA 12:21UA 2776 6h 51m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SDF 17:55 → MSP 19:05DL 5017 · flown by Endeavor 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144 5h 31m 67% 60%
UnitedDetails → SDF 15:41 → IAH 17:10UA 6310 · flown by Mesa 48m Houston IAH 17:58 → BNA 20:22UA 4785 · flown by SkyWest 5h 41m 68% 57%
DeltaDetails → SDF 14:09 → LGA 16:30DL 5637 · flown by Republic 57m New York LGA 17:27 → BNA 19:19DL 5002 · flown by Endeavor 6h 12m 69% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON