tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5615 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → SDF 12:49 BOS 15:25 8% 3% 0.6% 79%
YX 4685 Republic SDF 17:42 BOS 20:28 9% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → LGA 08:12DL 5652 · flown by Republic 1h 48m New York LGA 10:00 → BOS 11:23DL 5728 · flown by Republic 5h 23m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855 6h 45m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:55 → ORD 07:34AA 4413 · flown by Republic 1h 34m Chicago ORD 09:08 → BOS 12:51AA 802 5h 56m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38UA 3594 · flown by Republic 3h 21m Newark EWR 11:59 → BOS 13:16UA 1669 6h 46m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4549 · flown by Republic 2h 04m Washington DCA 09:54 → BOS 11:49AA 4337 · flown by Republic 5h 49m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862 6h 42m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 12:21 → BOS 14:56DL 1293 6h 46m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic 2h 34m Chicago ORD 10:30 → BOS 14:07UA 1606 6h 52m 99% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON