tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3519 Southwest SDF 07:04 BWI 08:50 3% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 3563 Southwest SDF 17:03 BWI 18:48 8% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801 4h 47m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 5h 56m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic 59m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 3h 57m 94% 85%
DeltaDetails → SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 4h 36m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:55 → ORD 07:34AA 4413 · flown by Republic 2h 39m Chicago ORD 10:13 → BWI 13:25AA 4253 · flown by Envoy 6h 30m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SDF 13:02 → ATL 14:33DL 1481 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → BWI 18:41DL 2928 5h 39m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic 2h 55m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 6h 42m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → SDF 12:33 → CLT 14:08AA 5145 · flown by PSA 2h 09m Charlotte CLT 16:17 → BWI 17:55AA 3121 5h 22m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SDF 17:26 → DTW 18:58DL 4947 · flown by Endeavor 1h 06m Detroit DTW 20:04 → BWI 21:45DL 2715 4h 19m 71% 60%
DeltaDetails → SDF 12:40 → MSP 13:48DL 4988 · flown by Endeavor 53m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 5h 35m 54% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON