Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5145 SDF 12:33 → CLT 14:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2816 SDF 19:28 → CLT 21:02 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5145 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SDF 12:33	CLT 14:08	6%	3%	0.7%	95%
OH 5292 PSA	SDF 15:05	CLT 16:44	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1349 American	SDF 06:12	CLT 07:40	7%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2099 American Flight history →	SDF 09:48	CLT 11:25	8%	4%	0.7%	83%
AA 2816 American	SDF 19:28	CLT 21:02	12%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON