Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 14–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 331 SDF 06:38 → DFW 08:08 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 2813 SDF 16:19 → DFW 17:36 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 331 American Flight history →	SDF 06:38	DFW 08:08	14%	7%	1.2%	80%
MQ 4051 Envoy	SDF 11:54	DFW 13:14	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 3791 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SDF 13:18	DFW 14:40	14%	4%	1.5%	84%
AA 3629 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SDF 18:06	DFW 19:33	16%	5%	0.9%	69%
AA 1645 American	SDF 08:26	DFW 09:54	17%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 2813 American	SDF 16:19	DFW 17:36	22%	8%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON