Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3229 at 08:19, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3229 Southwest	SDF 08:19	LAS 09:21	5%	1%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	8h 00m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 13:24 → LAS 14:49DL 659	9h 39m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	SDF 13:02 → ATL 14:33DL 1481	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → LAS 19:50DL 919	9h 48m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711	9h 35m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	7h 57m	98%	91%
United Details →	SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic	3h 13m Chicago	ORD 11:09 → LAS 13:08UA 1803	8h 53m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic	2h 59m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421	8h 38m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SDF 16:47 → ATL 18:25DL 3195	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → LAS 22:35DL 825	8h 48m	99%	89%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SDF 14:19 → DTW 15:46DL 5160 · flown by Endeavor	49m Detroit	DTW 16:35 → LAS 17:51DL 766	6h 32m	62%	55%
Delta Details →	SDF 19:51 → MSP 21:02DL 4923 · flown by Endeavor	51m Minneapolis	MSP 21:53 → LAS 23:23DL 1442	6h 32m	53%	47%
Delta Details →	SDF 17:26 → DTW 18:58DL 4947 · flown by Endeavor	49m Detroit	DTW 19:47 → LAS 21:25DL 916	6h 59m	51%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON