tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4502 at 06:01, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4502 Southwest SDF 06:01 MCO 07:58 3% 1% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:56DL 1213 3h 56m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic 3h 04m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MCO 15:03UA 2008 7h 48m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic 3h 07m Detroit DTW 12:23 → MCO 15:01DL 1123 7h 11m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 4h 55m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4549 · flown by Republic 3h 14m Washington DCA 11:04 → MCO 13:42AA 1153 7h 42m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030 4h 50m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38UA 3594 · flown by Republic 2h 32m Newark EWR 11:10 → MCO 14:03UA 2396 7h 33m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:15 → IAH 07:42UA 6266 · flown by Mesa 1h 48m Houston IAH 09:30 → MCO 13:00UA 2310 6h 45m 96% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON