Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 2073 at 06:01, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2073 American Flight history →	SDF 06:01	MIA 08:40	8%	4%	0.8%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	4h 57m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 57m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → LGA 08:12DL 5652 · flown by Republic	3h 03m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	8h 24m	100%	88%
American Details →	SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4549 · flown by Republic	1h 41m Washington	DCA 09:31 → MIA 12:15AA 401	6h 15m	98%	87%
American Details →	SDF 06:24 → ORD 07:06AA 4413 · flown by Republic	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 08:51 → MIA 13:03AA 1250	6h 39m	100%	86%
United Details →	SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 10:53 → MIA 15:07UA 1620	7h 52m	99%	84%
American Details →	SDF 07:09 → PHL 09:16AA 4750 · flown by Republic	2h 06m Philadelphia	PHL 11:22 → MIA 14:08AA 1989	6h 59m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SDF 17:50 → ATL 19:26DL 1126	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	7h 05m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON