Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 4973 SDF 06:27 → MSP 07:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4007 SDF 16:30 → MSP 17:39 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 4973 Endeavor	SDF 06:27	MSP 07:43	6%	4%	0.7%	no record
9E 4972 Endeavor	SDF 12:34	MSP 13:50	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 3938 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SDF 07:03	MSP 08:11	8%	4%	0.5%	89%
9E 4965 Endeavor	SDF 19:50	MSP 21:06	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 4007 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SDF 16:30	MSP 17:39	9%	4%	0.5%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON