Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 3507 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day YX 3507 SDF 05:25 → ORD 06:14 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4940 SDF 19:41 → ORD 20:44 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3507 Republic	SDF 05:25	ORD 06:14	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 3520 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 10:30	ORD 11:10	7%	2%	0.5%	100%
UA 3422 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 07:15	ORD 07:56	8%	2%	0.5%	90%
AA 4413 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 06:55	ORD 07:34	9%	2%	0.5%	93%
MQ 3580 Envoy	SDF 14:42	ORD 15:23	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3582 Envoy	SDF 10:37	ORD 11:08	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 3477 Republic	SDF 09:09	ORD 09:55	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 5746 SkyWest	SDF 13:48	ORD 14:24	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 4940 SkyWest	SDF 19:41	ORD 20:44	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 4563 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 19:55	ORD 20:40	23%	5%	6.4%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON