Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4750 SDF 07:37 → PHL 09:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest YX 4375 SDF 16:54 → PHL 19:09 · 7% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4750 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 07:37	PHL 09:38	5%	1%	0.5%	92%
YX 4375 Republic	SDF 16:54	PHL 19:09	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5915 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 12:12	PHL 14:20	23%	8%	3.7%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON