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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via DFW, leaving 06:38, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3903 Southwest SDF 11:54 PHX 12:53 6% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic 3h 31m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 9h 00m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 9h 03m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 08m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SDF 16:47 → ATL 18:25DL 3195 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → PHX 21:45DL 929 7h 58m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:38 → DFW 08:08AA 331 1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:47 → PHX 10:54AA 2315 7h 16m 96% 88%
AmericanDetails → SDF 07:37 → PHL 09:38AA 4750 · flown by Republic 3h 24m Philadelphia PHL 13:02 → PHX 15:11AA 765 10h 34m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic 3h 16m Chicago ORD 11:12 → PHX 13:05UA 2164 8h 50m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SDF 14:19 → DTW 15:46DL 5160 · flown by Endeavor 2h 26m Detroit DTW 18:12 → PHX 19:39DL 1135 8h 20m 98% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SDF 12:40 → MSP 13:48DL 4988 · flown by Endeavor 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284 6h 29m 61% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON