tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3960 at 12:54, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3960 Southwest SDF 12:54 TPA 14:55 11% 3% 1.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 5h 29m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → LGA 08:12DL 5652 · flown by Republic 2h 28m New York LGA 10:40 → TPA 13:28DL 2195 7h 28m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 6h 03m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:55 → ORD 07:34AA 4413 · flown by Republic 1h 31m Chicago ORD 09:05 → TPA 12:56AA 2920 6h 01m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099 5h 34m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SDF 13:02 → ATL 14:33DL 1481 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 18:22 → TPA 19:54DL 1457 6h 52m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:01 → TPA 15:35DL 1720 4h 18m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4549 · flown by Republic 2h 22m Washington DCA 10:12 → TPA 12:50AA 3126 6h 50m 99% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SDF 17:26 → DTW 18:58DL 4947 · flown by Endeavor 1h 01m Detroit DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355 5h 09m 66% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON