Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: OO 3015 at 12:49, 27%.

Nonstops that day


OO 3015 SkyWest	SEA 12:49	ACV 14:38	27%	13%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Arcata/Eureka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	2h 37m Denver	DEN 11:20 → ACV 13:24UA 5506 · flown by SkyWest	8h 24m	99%	85%
United Details →	SEA 09:09 → SFO 11:31UA 2831	2h 44m San Francisco	SFO 14:15 → ACV 15:49UA 4715 · flown by SkyWest	6h 40m	95%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SEA 07:05 → SFO 09:07UA 499	1h 08m San Francisco	SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42UA 4708 · flown by SkyWest	4h 37m	69%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON